The United Kingdom is experiencing a notable decline in fertility rates, surpassing all other Group of Seven (G7) nations in this unsettling trend. An analysis from the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP), a left-leaning think tank, reveals that the UK’s fertility rate has plummeted by 18.8% since 2010— the steepest drop among G7 members, which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States.
This decline raises significant concerns about the UK’s demographic and economic future, particularly as the number of pensioners is projected to exceed the working-age population in the coming years.
Italy follows closely behind the UK, reporting the second-largest drop in fertility rates among G7 nations. The United States, Canada, France, and Japan have also witnessed declines, albeit to a lesser degree. Many developed countries are grappling with similar demographic challenges, as falling fertility rates jeopardize the sustainability of population replacement. This situation has been cited as a rationale for promoting mass migration, a sentiment echoed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
Globally, numerous developed nations are facing declining birth rates. In 2022, Italy recorded fewer than 400,000 births—the lowest figure since the country’s unification in 1861. Its fertility rate has dwindled to 1.24 children per woman, one of the lowest in the OECD. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has vowed to confront this “demographic crisis” through new policies designed to encourage higher birth rates, yet progress has been limited.
Germany is similarly struggling with historically low birth rates, with 2022 marking a decade low at 1.46 children per woman. The increase in Germany’s population is now predominantly attributed to immigration, with net migration reaching an unprecedented 1.5 million in 2022. Other Northern European countries, including Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, have also reported significant declines in birth rates in recent years.
France, traditionally one of Europe’s more fertile nations, is not exempt from these patterns. Birth rates in France hit a record low in the first quarter of 2023, reflecting a 7% decrease compared to pre-pandemic figures. Experts from France’s National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) attribute this decline to a long-term downward trend, though France’s fertility rate remains relatively higher than many of its European counterparts, at approximately 1.8 children per woman.
In contrast, Hungary has successfully reversed its declining fertility trend. The country’s fertility rate rose from 1.2 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2021, driven by government policies aimed at encouraging family growth as an alternative to immigration.
Hungary has implemented a comprehensive set of initiatives designed to support families, including the Family Housing Allowance Program (CSOK), which provides substantial financial assistance for home purchases. Additionally, tax incentives play a crucial role in Hungary’s strategy, with mothers of four or more children enjoying lifetime income tax exemptions. New measures introduced last month also enable married couples to access low-interest loans, with loan amounts increasing based on the number of children.
By linking these benefits to marriage, Hungary has witnessed a notable rise in both marriage and fertility rates. Despite facing some criticisms, the country has achieved the highest fertility increase in the European Union over the past decade. While the long-term effects of these policies remain uncertain, Hungary’s experience may offer valuable insights for the UK and other nations seeking to address their own fertility challenges through proactive public policy rather than relying solely on immigration.
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