Canada, like many countries, is grappling with a troubling decline in birth rates, with experts urging more focus on reversing this trend. Ross McKitrick, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute (MLI), has raised alarms about the issue in his recent paper titled Canada at a Crossroads – Volume 2: Baby Steps, How to Reverse Canada’s Falling Fertility Rates. McKitrick, a professor of economics at the University of Guelph, is calling for practical solutions to address the country’s fertility crisis.
McKitrick highlighted a significant gap in understanding, noting that for years, academic discussions have mainly focused on limiting childbearing, particularly in low-income countries. He argues that this approach must change, as Canada faces its own unique challenges related to fertility rates.
In his paper, McKitrick offers several proposals to help reverse the trend. These include reducing housing and transportation costs, lowering income tax rates, improving child benefits, and expanding access to private and home-based childcare services. He also stresses the importance of public awareness campaigns to shift societal attitudes towards parenthood.
Peter Jon Mitchell, the family program director at the Cardus Institute, agrees with many of McKitrick’s suggestions. He believes that families should be recognized as economic units in the tax system. Mitchell also points out that many young women want more children but are hesitant due to concerns about personal growth, career goals, and the intensive care children require. He suggests that a message of empowerment could help ease these concerns and encourage more people to embrace parenthood.
McKitrick’s research also highlights the need to understand the barriers men face when it comes to marriage and family formation. He points to studies showing that women are often more concerned about finding a suitable partner than the financial burdens of childcare or housing.
To address these issues, McKitrick recommends that the government incentivize larger families, such as offering awards for women with three or more children. He also calls for media producers to create more content that portrays marriage and parenthood in a positive light.
Among McKitrick’s economic recommendations is the introduction of partial income splitting for families with one or two children, with full income splitting for families with four or more children. He also advocates for increased tax credits for dependents, with higher amounts for families with three or more children.
Rejecting the idea that immigration could solve Canada’s fertility problem, McKitrick argues that immigrants often stop having children once they settle in Canada. He emphasizes that this is a domestic issue that cannot be fixed by importing more people. Additionally, McKitrick warns that rapid demographic changes can lead to a breakdown in social trust, which could harm the sense of community and belonging in Canada.
According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), more than 110 countries and territories have fertility rates below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Last year, Canada’s fertility rate of 1.26 led the United Nations to label it a “lowest-low” fertility country. If the trend continues, Canada could face a shrinking working-age population, increased pressure on the social welfare system, and significant obstacles to economic growth and social stability.
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