Vietnam is witnessing a rapid increase in infertility and sterility rates, presenting significant challenges not only to the country’s population growth but also to the health and psychological well-being of couples. This trend was highlighted by Associate Professor Dr. Hoang Thi Diem Tuyet, Director of Hung Vuong Hospital, during the seminar “Choosing to be a mother: To have children or not to have children”, organized by the German Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City in collaboration with Merck Healthcare Vietnam.
Experts are sounding alarms as global demographic trends, such as declining birth rates and an aging population, gain momentum. Vietnam, they warn, is not immune to this shift and could experience these changes at an even faster pace.
According to the findings from the 2024 mid-term population and housing census by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the country’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.91 children per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. While fertility rates in Vietnam remained near the replacement threshold from 2009 to 2022, a noticeable decline has been recorded in the past two years. In 2023, the rate stood at 1.96 children per woman, and by 2024, it dropped further to 1.91.
This marks a concerning trend for Vietnam, where the demographic challenges of a declining fertility rate are compounded by a rapidly aging population. The aging index has surged to 60.2 percent in 2024, reflecting a significant increase from previous years. The number of seniors aged 60 and older has risen sharply, reaching 14.2 million, underscoring the acceleration of population aging.
By 2030, it is projected that Vietnam’s population of adults aged 60 and over will swell to around 18 million, an increase of nearly 4 million from 2024. This, alongside rising infertility rates, is contributing to the overall decline in birth rates across the country.
A 2010 study by the Ministry of Health and Hanoi Medical University Hospital estimated that over one million couples in Vietnam experience infertility annually, representing roughly 7.7 percent of the population. Alarmingly, about 50 percent of these affected couples are under 30 years of age.
Dr. Hoang Thi Diem Tuyet emphasized that the rising incidence of infertility, paired with the declining birth rate, accelerates the aging process of the population. In the long term, the consequences of persistently low birth rates could be severe, including labor shortages, a growing dependent population, and a shrinking workforce. These factors could ultimately undermine the nation’s competitiveness and economic stability.
Germany, which has faced similar demographic shifts, serves as a cautionary example. Dr. Josefine Wallat, the German Consul General to Ho Chi Minh City, shared insights on how a declining birth rate and aging population have contributed to challenges in workforce sustainability and elderly care. This trend has negatively affected Germany’s economic growth and prosperity, further highlighting the urgency of addressing the fertility crisis.
As Vietnam navigates this demographic transition, experts are calling for increased awareness, policy reforms, and interventions to address both infertility and the broader social and economic challenges of a shrinking and aging population.
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