Elon Musk recently amplified concerns about the U.S. fertility rate, declaring that “humanity’s birthrate is collapsing” and warning of a trend towards “extinction.” While his dramatic assertion echoes a long-standing pattern of declining fertility rates in the U.S. since 2007, such hyperbolic statements may not be the most grounded perspective. The latest provisional birth data for 2023 offers a clearer view of these trends.
In previous years, notably during the pandemic, there was considerable discussion about a potential “Baby Bust,” which was observed not only in the U.S. but also across other nations. The dramatic decline in births recorded in 2020 was partially influenced by shifting migration patterns. As we now have more comprehensive data, it’s possible to contextualize the pandemic’s impact within a broader historical framework.
Historical data from 1933, as maintained by the Human Fertility Database, shows that the crude birth rate (births per 1,000 people) has plummeted to its lowest point on record at 10.7. The last time the total number of births fell below 3.6 million was 45 years ago, when the population was substantially smaller. The total fertility rate (TFR)—which estimates the number of lifetime births per woman based on annual birth rates—has also reached a historic low of 1.62, slightly below the 1.64 recorded in 2020.
This long-term perspective reveals the fertility decline as a post-2007 phenomenon, initially triggered by the Great Recession. Although previous analyses suggested this decline was more closely tied to economic hardship and insecurity rather than advancements in women’s economic opportunities, a thorough review incorporating post-pandemic data has not yet been conducted.
The post-2007 decline in fertility can be examined in terms of the 2020 disruption and subsequent 2021-22 rebound. In 2023, total births were 16.8% lower than in 2007, compared to a 17.6% decline if the pre-pandemic trend had continued linearly. Despite this, the total number of births from 2020 to 2023 matches the projected figure based on the pre-2007 trend. The general fertility rate (births per woman aged 15-49) shows a similar pattern, with a post-2020 rebound fading and returning to the linear trend established since 2007.
The TFR experienced a notable drop in 2023 but remains above the post-2007 trend line, indicating a slowdown in the long-term decline that began before 2019. This complex measure lacks a clear explanation at this time. The crude birth rate, which is 25% below the 2007 level, reflects this dramatic decline, though it remains above the post-2007 trend. Part of this discrepancy may be attributed to increased mortality at older ages, which affects the number of potential childbearers.
Finally, examining age-specific birth rates reveals significant shifts. The data, scaled from 2007, shows that the increase in birth rates before 2007 was largely driven by women over age 24, shifting from teenage births. Post-2007, this trend has continued, with rising birth rates now observed only among women over 35. Notably, 2023 was the first year since 1989 (excluding 2020) with no increase in birth rates across any age group, including women aged 45-54.
In summary, while the decline in the total fertility rate has moderated since the 2020 pandemic year, the rebound has diminished, and trends largely align with the long-term decline observed since 2007. The shift towards older-age childbearing does not compensate for the decline in births among younger women. Current patterns suggest a continuation of these trends without any imminent reversal.
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