The U.S. population is expected to grow at a slower pace over the next few decades, according to new projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which were released on Wednesday. The updated estimates reflect a downward revision of the population forecast, with the country now projected to have 372 million residents by 2055—11 million fewer than previously estimated.
This adjustment comes as a result of declining fertility rates and reduced immigration, factors that have significantly altered the nation’s demographic outlook. Last year, the CBO had projected the U.S. population would reach 383 million by 2055. However, the latest report reflects the combined effects of a decrease in births and a slowdown in immigration, both of which have contributed to a lower growth trajectory.
Key to the revised projections is a shift in immigration patterns. A June 2024 executive order by President Joe Biden, which temporarily suspended the entry of most noncitizens at the southern border, played a direct role in the downward revision. The order, aimed at managing border encounters, led to a significant reduction in the number of people entering the U.S. from the southern border. Before the executive action, the CBO estimated that about 80,000 individuals were being released by Border Patrol each month. However, this number dropped to an average of approximately 20,000 monthly after the suspension was implemented, further affecting overall population growth.
In its report, the CBO emphasized the critical role of immigration in maintaining population levels. Without it, the report warns, the U.S. population could begin to shrink as early as 2033. This is largely due to persistently low fertility rates, which are expected to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Instead, the CBO forecasts a fertility rate of 1.60 births per woman over the next three decades, signaling that fewer children will be born than needed to replace the existing population.
As a result, U.S. population growth will slow considerably. Over the next decade, the CBO projects an average annual growth rate of just 0.4%. This rate will further decelerate to only 0.1% per year between 2036 and 2055.
It’s important to note that the CBO’s population projections differ slightly from those of the U.S. Census Bureau. While the Census Bureau tracks the resident population, the CBO includes the “Social Security area population,” which also accounts for U.S. citizens and other eligible individuals living abroad and receiving Social Security benefits. This broader scope results in slightly higher population estimates from the CBO compared to the Census Bureau’s figures.
The updated population projections are part of the CBO’s regular process to inform federal budget decisions, as well as projections for Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. These demographic changes underscore the importance of understanding long-term trends in population growth and their potential impacts on the economy and social services.
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